2013 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

• Will Win: Argo
• Alternative: Lincoln
• Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty (or Amour)
• Should Be Nominated: Skyfall and Moonrise Kingdom

Pretty great batch of nominees overall. Zero Dark Thirty and Amour are my favorites, but Life of Pi and Beasts of the Southern Wild are not too far behind. Realistically speaking, though, only Lincoln has a chance of winning over Argo.

Best Director

My Scattered Thoughts on Sarah Polley’s Take This Waltz

For better of for worse, technology has completely changed the way we interact with cinema. No longer do we have to wait days or even months to hear early word about the latest movies. Thanks to Twitter we can find out instants after any given screening. With the latest innovations in home theater technology, watching a movie from the comfort of your own home is becoming a more and more viable option. For more and more relatively high-profile movies it is becoming an option even before the movie receives a theatrical release, thanks to new video on demand trends. There are many benefits  to this; no longer do those of us living too far from a theater showing a movie we want to see have to wait months and months to see it. The downside to having word about any given movie get out so early, though, is fewer and fewer people willing to decide for themselves whether they like anything. There are those who won’t go anywhere near any movie not playing in over 3,000 theaters across North America. Those who take pride in their intellectual superiority, having the ability to enjoy that independent little gem that general audiences are not “smart enough” to appreciate.  Those who get a kick out of being the contrarian, always having a negative opinion ready when something becomes successful. Yet, perhaps it’s the middle group who is the most conservative of all.

How often do you see sellouts at a festival for a film without a star or director that has already been given some kind of critical seal of approval prior to the screening? How many small, truly independent films become breakout hits without an amazing reception during the FIRST festival or public screening. It seems that, more and more, that first screening is a make or break moment. If it’s successful, its smooth sailing ahead for the film. If that first group of people who sees the movies isn’t ready to declare it a masterpiece, chances are no one after that will want to be the first to do so. We don’t want to take a chance on something that hasn’t already been branded hip. It’s my opinion that Sarah Polley’s Take This Waltz has fallen victim to this. It had its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival last year, and while reaction to it has been far from bad, it does feel a bit on the tepid side, especially in comparison to her 2006 masterpiece, Away From Her. It’s a shame because in spite of some minor flaws (the series of coincidences that set the “romance” of the film in motion seem like a bit of a stretch) it is one of the best films of the year.

Melancholia

I have considered myself a Lars von Trier fan for over a decade. Ever since, as a teenager, I stood horrified but completely absorbed in front of the screen as the conclusion of Breaking the Waves unfolded, the announcement of a new von Trier film is an event. I say this even though I haven’t truly loved any of his films in the past decade. Melancholia, which I saw months ago, was another in a series of disappointments. It is, however, the first in a while that I feel compelled to give a second chance.

Modern Treasures: Y Tu Mama Tambien

Several movies over the past decade have brought Mexican cinema repeated international recognition. While popular films like Amores Perros and, most notably, Pan’s Labyrinth are without a doubt great, no film in the last decade has given me as much hope about the possibilities of a Mexican national cinema as Y Tu Mama Tambien (beautifully directed by Alfonso Cuaron).

Last Minute Oscar Thoughts: Possible Surprises

Another yearly award season will come to an end tonight when trophies for top motion picture honors, the Academy Awards, are handed out in California. As with previous years, the long stretch of endless pre-cursor awards handed out leading up to the Oscars means we pretty much know what to expect tonight. It would perhaps be Oscar’s biggest shock if someone like Mo’nique ended up losing.

Sure, there are people out there who think there’s an actual race for Best Picture between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. The only thing I can say to that is that I don’t get it.  The Hurt Locker might appear microscopic in comparison to Avatar but, apart from the Golden Globe, it has won every award you can think of so far. An Avatar win tonight would flat-out shock  and disappoint me. True, I would have said the same thing about a Brokeback Mountain loss a few years back, but I am not expecting history to repeat itself so soon. So with Picture, in my opinion, pretty much wrapped up, it narrows down the likelihood of any major surprises to a couple of categories. The most likely of these is Best Actress.

Last Minute Oscar Predictions

What Will/Should Win. Plus What should have been nominated.

Best Picture
Will Win: The Hurt Locker (Alt: Avatar)
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Have Been Nominated: Bright Star

Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow (Alt: None)
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Have Been Nominated: Jane Campion (Bright Star)

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock (Alt: Gabby Sidibe)
Should Win: Gabby Sidibe
Should Have Been Nominated: Catalina Saavedra (The Maid)

Valentine’s Day 2010 Movie Pick: Bright Star

Bright star, would I were stedfast as thou art.

One of my favorite ways to spend Valentine’s Day, were I not so cynical, would be a day with a few of my favorite movies. I might be biased, but it’s romantic, relaxing and relatively effortless.  Judging by a couple of titles out now and aimed at sweethearts all over, a less-cynical version of me would not be alone.

If you choose to spend your Valentine’s Day this way this year, do yourself, your relationship and humanity a favor: stay away from multiplexes and crap like Dear John and Valentine’s Day. I suggest, instead, watching the tragically overlooked 2009 Jane Campion film, Bright Star.

A New Era in Mexican Cinema: Francisco Vargas

One of the things I most looked forward to when moving to Mexico was exploring Mexican cinema, from its very first silent movies to the current, and very much resurgent, era. Over the last decade, Mexico has witnessed unprecedented international success with Academy-Award nominated films like Amores Perros, The Crime of Father Amaro, Pan’s Labyrinth and Y Tu Mama Tambien. Without taking away anything from those movies (Y Tu Mama Tambien, in particular, is one of my all-time favorites) I wanted to bring attention to four filmmakers whose films didn’t quite receive the attention of the aforementioned titles. These filmmakers, however, could very well represent the birth of a bright, artistic period in the future of Mexican cinema..

First off, Francisco Vargas. Of the four directors I will be covering ,he is the only one to have made no more than one feature-length film over the course of the decade. That film, 2005’s The Violin (El violin), is such a poignant, assured debut that he absolutely had to be included here nonetheless.

Biggest Oscar Disappointments

The announcement of the Oscar nominations this morning was business as usual, for the most part. A couple of surprise nominees did manage to sneak in, most notably in the supporting actress race. After a decade of fantastic work, it was pleasant to see Maggie Gyllenhaal earn her first Academy Award nomination for her work in Crazy Heart in spite of a slightly bipolar campaign that saw her in both the supporting and lead actress categories at different stages of the race.

That aside, and while I had long given up on nominations for some of my favorite films, there were still a couple of  major disappointments.  It is only the second day of the month and already I’m threatening to exceed my whining quota, so for my own sake I will cap off my list at three.

Marion Cotillard

14 Must-See Movies of 2009

I realize this is so more than one month ago. Call my style retro.

2009 had its share of great moments in cinema, but ultimately I have managed to narrow  down my list  to fourteen films which I consider essential viewing. I, of course, have no time to watch every movie released in any given year and so there are a few, mostly smaller, films that I have yet to watch. Among them Summer Hours, 35 Shots of Rum, The White Ribbon, A Prophet, A Serious Man, The Beaches of Agnes, and The Headless Woman.

I also saw a handful of very good films that came close to making my list, but just missed out. They include The Princess and The Frog, A Single Man, An Education, and Good Hair.

On to my Top 14.

14. Avatar
You’ve probably heard everything there is to say about this film at this point. It’s true that it might not be storytelling at its best. On a visceral level, however, I can think of only a few movies that I have enjoyed more over the last few years. That’s pretty hard to come by, so why whine?

13. Coraline
The first animated film on this list is the wonderful, imaginative and visually stunning Coraline. It adheres to the classic fairy tale format close enough for comfort and somehow still ends up being an altogether original experience with  just the right amount of  spooky horror.

12. Star Trek
Leave it to J.J. Abrams  to bring a previously dying franchise back to life with such force. This is how summer action blockbusters should be made. A must-see for Star Trek fans and non-fans alike.